Will Trump attend the APEC summit in South Korea in full? Will the much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping take place? And could a potential visit to a Korean shipyard help resolve ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and South Korea? These questions are now at the center of attention for diplomats, media, and global economic observers alike. As the APEC summit in Gyeongju approaches this October, every move by the U.S. President carries significant implications not just for the summit, but for broader international trade relations.
Let’s explore how Trump’s visit and the potential shipyard tour could impact the APEC summit and U.S.-Korea relations.
Trump’s Short Visit and APEC Participation
U.S. President Donald Trump is anticipated to arrive in South Korea on October 29 for a short visit of around 12 hours. During this visit, it is likely he will have a summit meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and possibly a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which draws global attention given the recent turmoil between the two of the world’s largest economies.
Moreover, the President is also anticipated to attend the APEC Business Summit, which has prominent global technology and industry leaders, including Sam Altman of OpenAI and Jensen Huang of NVIDIA, who will also be attending the summit. This visit is a noteworthy occasion for economic diplomacy. However, given the very brief trip, scheduling a visit to a Korean shipyard is being weighed as key to emphasizing an emphasis on industry cooperation. The South Korean government and shipbuilding industry both remain flexible to accommodate the President’s possible visit, even if it is unanticipated.
Trump-Xi Bilateral Meeting Uncertainty
At first, a bilateral meeting was scheduled for Trump and Xi to take place at APEC, but now this has been called into question with the reports of rising tensions. China has recently placed restrictions on rare earth exports, which the US took to mean a response from Beijing to the US blockade of Huawei’s subsidiaries in other countries. Trump suggested possible retaliatory tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods, making the diplomatic landscape more complicated.
Another consideration analysts report which is relevant to the meeting at the APEC summit is that Trump historically avoids multilateral gatherings when he believes U.S.-interests might not be prioritized, or diluted, among a group of countries. He generally prefers to be top dog rather than blend in with a group of national leaders, and this has guided much of the nature of his foreign policy. This raises the question: Would there be a high-level meeting with Xi, and would it change anything on the overall agenda of APEC?
Potential Korean Shipyard Visit
One of the most intriguing aspects of Trump’s visit is the potential stop at a Korean shipyard, which could symbolize U.S.-Korea cooperation and highlight industrial initiatives under the MASGA (Make American Shipbuilding Great Again) program.
Two shipyards are under consideration:
- HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (Ulsan) – favored for its proximity to Gyeongju and more time-efficient logistics.
- Hanwha Ocean (Geoje) – emphasizes South Korean investment in the U.S., including Hanwha’s acquisition of Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia last year. Trump also has a historical connection with this shipyard, having visited it during a prior trip in 1998 related to business interests.
The South Korean government and shipbuilding companies are actively coordinating with U.S. officials to ensure the visit is feasible, even if finalized just a few days before Trump’s arrival. The visit would serve as a strong symbolic gesture of industrial cooperation, especially amid global economic uncertainties.
Impact on U.S.-South Korea Trade Relations
A visit to a shipyard by Trump could have far-reaching ramifications for trade negotiations. It might break the stalemate on U.S.-South Korea tariff discussions; allowing both to showcase joint projects and industrial cooperation.
Similarly, the visit could send a strong signal about the strategic economic partnership between the United States and South Korea. By promoting cooperation on manufacturing, workforce development, and investments between the two nations, the governments could demonstrate they are constructive partners in global trade and industry. This could be particularly pertinent as the world observes U.S.-China trade relations and their effects on regional economies.
Impact on Korea and the APEC Summit
The APEC summit is the first significant diplomatic event hosted by South Korea under the leadership of President Lee Jae-myung. The presence of important heads of state and industry will provide an opportunity for Seoul to share its vision for pragmatic diplomacy, but the uncertainty of whether Trump will participate, and the possible shipyard visit present “wild cards” that may affect the summit’s outcome.
One of the key objectives for the summit is the “Gyeongju Declaration,” a leader-level joint statement among APEC leaders. If Trump participates in the summit, participating in the Gyeongju Declaration will be easier, while Trump’s absence may make the Gyeongju Declaration harder to achieve. Therefore, even the decision to participate in the Trump-Xi meeting or to visit the shipyard directly affects the Gyeongju Declaration.
In addition to the uncertainty about the Gyeongju Declaration, global attention and global trade discussions will shift depending on the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting and shipyard visit.
Current Situation and Outlook
There are many unknowns, but analysts believe Trump may try to pull off some blustery surprise agreement during APEC, as he has often resorted to with trade negotiations. Meanwhile, China asserts that it is not seeking a trade war, but will also stand against high tariffs and retaliate, showing timidity with firmness.
So the overall conditions are uncertain, but strategically important, not just for the U.S. and South Korea, but for the Asia-Pacific region, generally. Each step taken by Trump–his actually attending, what he does at the meetings, and his visit to the shipyard–could be diplomatically and economically consequential.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, Trump’s brief trip, the embattled if uncertain Trump-Xi meeting, and the possible tour of the Korean shipyards together create a situation where the APEC summit is both overshadowed and rich with strategic opportunities. While the limited amount of time has its challenges, the symbolic and material value of his visit has the very real potential to impact U.S.-Korea trade, industrial cooperation, and the broader dialogue on the global economy.
We will have to see how the APEC summit will play out and what has transpired for U.S.-Korea relations in the wake of these visibility events.
